January 20, 2023
When holdouts in the conservative Freedom Caucus finally gave their votes to Kevin McCarthy for House Speaker, they claimed victory. They'd extracted a number of concessions -- big committee assignments, a reduced threshold for a motion to vacate -- designed to favor them. But their motivations weren't entirely selfish, they said. They also fought for a return to regular order, which gives rank-and-file House members increased influence in legislating. As former conservative House staffer John Feehery writes in Politico, the caucus may come to regret that.
The Freedom Caucus's raison-d'être is government spending during Democratic presidencies. With Congress and the president soon to enter negotiations on the debt limit, caucus members are determined to hold a debt hike hostage without major spending cuts. Feehery points out, though, that by advocating for regular order, the FC is ceding power to moderate House members of both parties who (a) far outnumber them and (b) have no stomach for playing chicken with the debt. The question mark in all this is Kevin McCarthy. It remains unclear both how close he's willing to take the U.S. to default and how beholden he feels to the Freedom Caucus for his ascendency. The answer on both counts is hopefully "not very." By reaching a debt limit compromise and bringing it to the floor long before any chance of default, McCarthy could earn some points not just with the American people, but with moderate members across the aisle. If the Freedom Caucus brought forward a motion to vacate because they didn't like the deal he cut, it's possible he wouldn't need those hardliners to hold the speakership.
One final remark. A debt limit deal should always be easy to come by, but it should be especially easy during a Biden presidency. During the fiscal cliff standoff of 2012/2013, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid begged President Obama to stop sending Vice President Biden to negotiate because Biden was so eager for a deal he was, in their estimation, giving away the store. There's no reason to believe his desire for a compromise has faded. McCarthy shouldn't be so eager to impress his extreme colleagues that he doesn't take yes for an answer.