In October of 2020, as the election was winding down, I asked a friend, “Do you think Joe Biden is going to win?” His face went dead and, when he finally responded, he said, “It hadn’t occurred to me he could lose until you said that. The only thing I’ve been wondering is if he’ll win Texas.” My response was, “I don’t think Texas is in the cards. He might win Georgia, though.”
I don’t tell this story to tear my friend down or to build myself up. I’m not a savant. I didn’t come to that conclusion on my own. I was looking at one source of information. He was looking at another, and mine was ultimately more accurate. But I think about that story a lot, because I wonder if he changed information sources after that. The news gets things wrong all the time — it’s understandable, they’re working with what they have in the moment — but when your go-to is telling you Joe Biden could win Texas, that’s not news. That’s commentary. And it is, quite honestly, counter-productive commentary.
Republicans have no room to gloat here. As I’ve mentioned before here, in 2012, Michael Barone of Fox News was telling viewers Mitt Romney would walk away with the election. He got the call so wrong he was put on suspension. (This is in contrast to Chris Stirewalt getting the Arizona call so right in 2020 that Fox News fired him.)
The point I’m making, which I know I’m repeating, is that sources of information that don’t provide actual information are not, well, sources of information. What purpose was served by liberal commentators telling my friend Texas was in play for Biden? What purpose was served by Michael Barone vastly overstating Romney’s competitiveness to Fox viewers. I don’t doubt those pundits believed what they were saying, but if they’re blind to the truth, what does it matter?
This is all a long way of saying that today I'm linking to the website that made it clear in 2020 that Biden could win Georgia but not Texas. There are things about this site I disagree with. It’s a news and opinion aggregator that regularly highlights strident commentary from both sides (though it favors the right), and the majority of the video clips it posts are geared toward some outrage-du-jour. But its polling aggregator is strong and, for the most part, hard to argue with. If you don’t want to be overly surprised or downtrodden on election night, I recommend giving the site’s polling a look between now and Tuesday.