I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again (as much for myself as for you) — excluding Joe Biden’s June performance, presidential debates have not historically made a difference the past 30 years. It sounds crazy. It sounds impossible. And yet it’s apparently true. Again, I’m talking this out for me as much as for you.
Now, there are caveats and hypotheticals, one foremost among them. We’re currently only getting one debate between Harris and Trump. Most election seasons have several, giving candidates a chance to correct any glaring mistakes. Would Mondale have become president if Reagan hadn’t bounced back in their second debate? Would Romney have become president if the nation had only seen Obama “the professor” (as Obama’s aides called him in despair) in their first debate? Impossible to say, but it’s possible to believe.
Given that, it seems possible this single debate will matter. It will provide the candidates the largest audience either of them will have between now and Election Day, and it gives them the best chance to answer voters’ most pressing questions. For Trump, that pressing question is, “Can he stay on message?” His record is mixed. How can he prove he has the focus and discernment to handle the job again? For Harris, the question is, “Can she bolster her message?” Her past positions are a bit all over the place. How can she substantively assure voters her current stances are her true beliefs?
I have a suspicion one of these questions is tougher to answer than the other. I’ll see if I’m wrong tonight. And I’ll see again if it ever mattered at all come November.